A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."