Just two months in the past that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.